Last weekend, one much bruited auction was held here in the Florida Panhandle. Properties offered ranged from luxury condos to vacant tracts of land. One prominent auction house had 15 different properties that went under the gavel.

How many properties sold out of all those offered? Not one.

So I was a bit nonplussed when I opened my email this Monday morning after to find a message from one of the prominent auction firms: “Agents, are you tired of your property not selling?”

The irony was inescapable.

While auctions have had a good run of popularity in the recent market, the fact is that more recent auctions have sorely lacked bidders. What bidders there are have grown very wary, each waiting for the other to bid.

Truth be told, auctions did not consistently deliver value to the Seller even in their recent heyday. One case that we encountered involved a luxury condo that was up for auctioned twice and did not sell on either occasion.  Of course, the auction company does not refund the marketing fee they have collected (ranging typically from about $3,000 to $10,000). The auction did not bring in the required amount, so the property did not sell. In a matter of a few weeks, La Florida sold a condominium that was approximately the same size in the same building. The sales price? Greater than the highest bid on the most recent auction–$1.895 million.

We wonder what will happen to those properties that don’t sell. In the eyes of the market, these unsold properties have been tainted by the abortive auction. The Sellers have significantly narrowed their choices of how to proceed.

It will be interesting to observe if auction companies change their business models to respond to increasingly knowledgeable Buyers and Sellers. Meanwhile, these companies might do well to consider the old saying: “The definition of true insanity is to do the same thing over and over again, and expect different results.”

Debates, caucuses and baby-kissing photo ops are in full swing around the country with “only” a year until presidential elections. Given the way presidential candidates start running immediately after elected (or defeated), it’s hardly surprising that Christmas ornaments are crowding Halloween candy off store shelves.

But to return to politics and its effects on real estate: do you feel that the federal government can take any action that will positively affect the credit and real estate markets? Candidates stump speeches have been long on promises to assist The People, and noticeably short on specific recommendations.

Is the problem that people can’t obtain credit? Or is it that people who obtained credit can’t pay their bills? What can the government do to improve the situation?

Many prospective real estate buyers have put a lot of mental energy into figuring out when prices will hit “The Bottom” - that is, the low point after which prices will begin rising. The theory is that if they time it just right, they will be able to snag great deals that won’t ever be seen again on desirable property. Trouble is, there won’t be a flash of light or even a consensus of economists to herald that magic moment. The reality is that with very rare exceptions, people will only recognize The Bottom via 20/20 hindsight.

For every 10 sure-fire, never-miss signs that prices continue to fall, there are another 10 just as credible signs that real estate pricing is on the rebound. Some market-watchers crunch numbers. Others track certain consumer purchases. Still others like to rely on what days of the week holidays fall on. No one has a solid answer.

So let’s accept that a clear-cut moment when prices bottom out will be nearly impossible to determine. Here’s a plausible way to win at calling The Bottom:

We know it’s a buyers’ market just now, with plenty of choice and prices well below two years ago. How much lower do you believe prices will fall over the next year or so? Five percent? Ten percent? More?

If you believe the market will fall another 10 percent, then make an offer that is 10 percent off the asking price for that property you’ve had your eye on. Buyers are very motivated to accept offers these days. If you acquire the property, you’ll be enjoying it and/or making income for the year or so the fence-sitters are waiting for the pronouncement that “The Bottom” is here.

Should you be absolutely spot on with your calculation that the market will fall another 10 percent, you’ve made your move well ahead of the pack. If prices move upward starting tomorrow, you’ve once again acted before the field gets crowded.

It’s the proverbial win/win at the call The Bottom game.